Abubakar Vagaev makes his UFC debut. Saygid Izagakhmaev is 0-1, a split-decision loss to Nicolas Dalby at welterweight in November that was close enough to leave the question open. The model takes Vagaev at 54.2% and expects the judges to decide it.
The read
This is close to a coin flip and the model is not pretending otherwise. Izagakhmaev's path is the Dalby fight with the scorecards falling the other way, because he has already shown he can hold his own for 15 minutes against a UFC-tested opponent. Vagaev's path is a debut, and that is the caveat. The one man here with a UFC appearance is the one the model is picking against.
What decides it
- A debutant against a fighter whose only UFC outing was a split decision
- Izagakhmaev has 15 UFC minutes banked and Vagaev has none
- Izagakhmaev's path is repeating the Dalby performance and winning the close rounds this time
- Welterweight three-rounder, the decision is the expected method
- One of the two closest reads on the card