Levi Rodrigues Jr makes his UFC debut. Felipe Franco is 0-1, having lost a unanimous decision to Mario Pinto in March. Neither man has a UFC win. The model splits it and gives Franco the narrowest possible lean.
The read
This is as close to even as the model gets, and the single fact separating the two is that Franco has already been through 15 UFC minutes. Franco's path is that experience and whatever he took from losing it. Rodrigues' path is a debut, and the model's read on the fight was close to a coin flip. The method is the odd detail: this is the only fight on the card where the model's most likely finish is a knockout rather than a decision.
What decides it
- Franco's one UFC appearance vs a fighter making his UFC debut
- Franco is 0-1 and looking for a first promotional win
- Rodrigues' path is a debut and could go either way
- Three rounds, and the only bout here where knockout is the top method
- Tied for the closest call on the card