Anna Melisano makes her UFC debut. Dione Barbosa is 3-2 across five UFC fights, with a first-round submission of Diana Belbita, a majority decision over Melissa Gatto in April, and decision losses to Miranda Maverick and Karine Silva. All five of Barbosa's UFC bouts have come at women's flyweight. The model leans Barbosa.
The read
The model takes the known quantity, and the margin says it does not take her by much. Barbosa's path is the grappling that produced her fastest UFC win. Melisano's path is a debut, and the model's read was close to even. The tell is in how Barbosa loses: both of her UFC defeats went the full three rounds against opponents who out-worked her, so the route through her is winning rounds rather than finding a finish.
What decides it
- Barbosa's submission threat vs a fighter making her UFC debut
- Barbosa 3-2 and coming off a majority-decision win in April
- Melisano's path is a debut
- Three rounds, decision the likeliest method
- A modest lean, well inside the card's close range