Alden Coria is 2-0 in the UFC, stopping Alessandro Costa in the third round last September and outpointing Luis Gurule in February. Stewart Nicoll is 0-3, submitted by Jesus Aguilar, outpointed by Lucas Rocha and stopped by Costa in April. The model has Coria clear, and the read is the win column.
The read
The model sees a fighter who has won both ways in the UFC against one who has not won at all. Coria's path is the pace and finishing he showed in his first two appearances, either route available to him. Nicoll's path is a finish of his own, because in three tries he has not won a round-by-round argument. The tell is Alessandro Costa: Coria stopped him in September, and Costa stopped Nicoll in April.
What decides it
- Coria's two-way finishing threat vs Nicoll's winless UFC run
- Coria 2-0, Nicoll 0-3 with two stoppage losses
- Nicoll's path is a finish rather than points
- Flyweight, three rounds, decision the likeliest method
- Third-firmest read on the card