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FightIQ · Record · Rafael Tobias

Rafael Tobias

UFC 0-2Pro 14-3tale of the tape = factsmetrics = our read

FightIQ’s profile

Built from Rafael Tobias’s own numbers — record, form, fighting style and standout rate. Not reported prose. All-rounder

UFC recordUFC 0-2 first fight 2026-03-07 · last fight 2026-08-15
Pro record14-3
Current streak2 losses
Last 2 (UFC)L L
DivisionLight Heavyweight
Age23
Height6' 2"
StanceOrthodox

6' 2" orthodox all-rounder campaigning at Light Heavyweight. Best of Light Heavyweights: stuffs 100% of the takedowns tried on him.

Every figure here is recomputed at build time from the official fight record and the striking and grappling numbers on this page — there is no stored snapshot to go out of date. If a number isn’t in the data, it isn’t in this profile.

Tale of the tape facts

The facts, plainly — vitals and record from public UFC statistics; nickname, nationality and camp from the public fighter register. A field we can't source stays “pending”; it never shows a fake value. Where a fighter was born and where they fight out of come from their Wikipedia entry; where we hold neither, the hometown shown is Sherdog’s. The social accounts are the ones linked from the fighter’s own official athlete page — we don’t match handles by name. The UFC record is counted from the official results themselves, and is dated by the first and last bout it counts.

Nicknamepending
NationalityBrazil
Hometown (per Sherdog)Curitiba, Parana
CampChute Boxe Monstro
Height6' 2"
Reach74"
StanceOrthodox
Age23
Date of birthMar 20, 2003
Weight205 lbs.
Pro record14-3
UFC recordUFC 0-2 first fight 2026-03-07 · last fight 2026-08-15
Finish splitpending
Social

Career rates facts

Career averages over Rafael Tobias’s UFC bouts, straight from public UFC statistics — the same eight numbers on his official record. These are the source’s figures, not our read: what we make of them is the card below.

Striking
Strikes landed / min2.17
Striking accuracy32%
Strikes absorbed / min5.95
Striking defence37%
Grappling
Takedowns / 15 min2.00
Takedown accuracy40%
Takedown defence100%
Sub attempts / 15 min1.00

FightIQ Metrics

Six 0–100 scores, each a percentile rank against the Light Heavyweight field — not against the whole roster. Tap any i for what a score measures.

FightIQ's read — derived from the tape
Our read — derived, not official stats. Ranked within Light Heavyweight.
Striking28
Defence16
Grappling / TD57
Cardio55
Chin limited sample18
Fight IQ35

Our calls on Rafael Tobias’s fights

Every fight of Rafael Tobias’s that we called in the live 2026 season — whichever corner we called it for. Posted before the fight, graded after it.

FightIQ has called 2 of Rafael Tobias’s fights in 2026: 1 correct (1–1 — 50% right). Each call was posted before the fight and graded after it. The confidence % is the number we stood behind at the time — losses shown, toss-ups included.

DateOpponentWe called it forConfidenceResult
2026-08-15Lucas FernandoLucas Fernando (against Tobias)58.6%Correct
2026-03-07Diyar NurgozhayRafael Tobias70.4%Missed

Strike zones

Strike zones

Rafael Tobias

Where the strikes go — and where they land on him. Career UFC totals, straight off the tape.

HEAD65.4%ACC 26%BODY23.1%FIELD 19%LEGS11.5%FIELD 17%
FightIQ read Balanced attack 65% head / 23% body / 12% legs — no single target dominates.
Share by zonevs field average
HEAD
65.4% acc 26%+1.2 vs field
BODY
23.1%+4.0 vs field
LEGS
11.5%−5.3 vs field
Where the offence happens
DISTANCE 71%CLINCH 10%GROUND 19%

Significant strikes only, as recorded by UFCStats, across the fighter's whole UFC career. Shares are raw counts — nothing here is modelled or smoothed. Accuracy is landed ÷ attempted and comes from the per-round tape, which covers slightly fewer fights than the totals do. “Field” is the average fighter in that weight class, or across every division where a class is too small to average.

Limited sample2 UFC fights · 52 landed

Takedowns

Takedowns

Rafael Tobias

The level change — how often it lands, how often it is stopped. Career UFC rates, straight off the tape.

2.00takedowns / 15 min
FightIQ read Takedowns in the mix 2.00 landed per 15 minutes — −0.32 on the field average — a real part of the arsenal, not the whole of it.
Career ratesvs field average
TAKEDOWNS58
2.00 / 15m−0.32 vs field
ATTEMPTS58
5.00 / 15m−0.50 vs field
ACCURACY49
40%−4pp vs field
SUB ATT63
1.00 / 15m−0.60 vs field

Rate bars run to the population’s 95th percentile (6.25 takedowns / 15m); a fighter above it pins the bar. Percentages are drawn on their own axis.

Career UFC takedown rates exactly as UFCStats publishes them: takedowns landed per 15 minutes, completion rate, submission attempts per 15 minutes, and the share of takedowns tried on them that they stuffed. Attempts per 15 is the one derived figure — landed ÷ completion rate — and it is omitted wherever either input is missing. UFCStats writes 0% where no attempt was recorded at all, so a percentage of exactly zero reads “n/a” here rather than as a measured rate. “Field” is the average fighter in that weight class, or across every division where a class is too small to average.

Ranked in Light Heavyweight

Recent form

Pro record: 14-3. In the UFC: 0-2. Rafael Tobias’s last 2 UFC bouts, most recent first — the result in the cage, not our pick.

Straight off the official UFC fight record. Card names are left off on purpose: the only event labels in our data are derived, and we’d rather print nothing than print one that’s wrong.

Full UFC career — 2 bouts every fight on the official record, newest first
DateOpponentMethodRdEvent
2026-08-15LLucas FernandoKO/TKOR3UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry
2026-03-07LDiyar NurgozhayDecision (unanimous)R3UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2

Every date links to that bout’s own page. Card names come from the official event record; where the UFC ran two cards on one date, or that record has no row for it, the Event column is left empty rather than filled with a guess.

On the scale

Rafael Tobias’s official weigh-ins — the weight the commission read off the scale, and the limit it had to be under.

DateOpponentWeight / limitDivisionSource
2026-08-15Lucas Fernando204 / 206MADELight HeavyweightUFC.com
2026-03-07Diyar Nurgozhay204 / 206MADELight HeavyweightUFC.com
Medically suspended until 11 February 2027 (PSAC) — 180 days from the 15 August 2026 card: right hand and left leg. Clearance required: physician.Medical suspensions are published by the athletic commission that sanctioned the card, and only 6 of the 2026 cards have a published list — the rest were sanctioned by bodies that release nothing. No line here means no published sheet, not a clean bill. source

Weigh-in results cover the 31 UFC cards held in 2026 so far — 24 January 2026 to 12 September 2026. Earlier years are not on file yet, so a fighter with no row here is not a fighter who never missed weight.

On the map

The 2 cities Rafael Tobias has fought a UFC bout in and the hometown on the record. Every pin was looked up by name in OpenStreetMap’s gazetteer and stored with the answer it gave; nothing here is estimated.

Las Vegas, Nevada, USA — 1 bout, 2026Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA — 1 bout, 2026Hometown: Curitiba, Parana

Coastline: Natural Earth (public domain). Pins: © OpenStreetMap contributors, ODbL. Every host city and camp on one map.

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