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Fantasy matchup

Max Holloway vs Paddy PimblettFantasy matchup — not a booked fight

#4 at Lightweight · #5 at Lightweight
Not a booked fightFANTASY MATCHUP — this fight is not booked. What our two blind models would say if it were.
UFC 24-9 · Pro 28-9
#4 at Lightweight
VS
UFC 8-1 · Pro 24-4
#5 at Lightweight

If they fought

A statistical read on a fight that does not exist — no market, no booking, nothing to grade it against.

Max Holloway 49% Paddy Pimblett 51%

Run as an unbooked fight, this one splits our two reads — they do not name the same winner, so there is no lean here to give you.

Our two reads disagree. One leans Paddy Pimblett at 51%; the other leans Max Holloway at 52%. When they split like this there is no read worth having — treat it as a coin toss.

The same read puts the chance it goes the full distance at 53%.

Hypothetical run at Lightweight; Max Holloway fought mainly at Featherweight.

KO/TKO
28%
Submission
8%
Decision
64%
These figures come from the same statistical reads we run on real cards, with the betting market removed — there is no market on a fight nobody has booked. Nothing here is timestamped against a result, nothing here is graded, and none of it counts towards our public record. It is a thought experiment with real numbers behind it.

Tale of the tape

Max Holloway vs Paddy Pimblett — the facts, side by side. ▲ marks the reach edge.

UFC 24-9UFC recordUFC 8-1
28-9Pro record24-4
BlessedNicknameThe Baddy
5' 11"Height5' 10"
69"Reach▲73"
OrthodoxStanceOrthodox
34Age31
155 lbs.Weight155 lbs.
United StatesNationalityEngland
Honolulu, Hawaii, United StatesBorn inLiverpool, Merseyside, England
Waiʻanae, Hawaii, United StatesFights out ofLiverpool, England
—CampNext Generation MMA Liverpool
Vitals and record from public UFC statistics; nickname, nationality and camp from the public fighter register. Where a fighter was born and where they fight out of come from their Wikipedia entry; where we hold neither, the hometown shown is Sherdog’s. The UFC record is counted from the official results themselves.

Stat-by-stat

Max Holloway (left) vs Paddy Pimblett (right) — career striking & grappling rates. The fighter ahead on each row is highlighted in their corner colour.

Strikes landed / min
6.92
vs
5.48
Striking accuracy
48%
vs
52%
Strikes absorbed / min
4.6
vs
3.86
Striking defence
58%
vs
42%
Takedowns / 15 min
0.22
vs
0.68
Takedown accuracy
53%
vs
21%
Takedown defence
81%
vs
46%
Sub attempts / 15 min
0.3
vs
1.4
Career averages from public UFC statistics. On “strikes absorbed / min”, fewer is better.

Fights that have happened between them

None.

Max Holloway and Paddy Pimblett have never met in the UFC.

Every matchup on this page is a pairing that has never happened. That is how they are chosen: if these two had already met in the Octagon, there would be a real result to read instead, and this page would not exist.

The real fighters

Everything above is hypothetical. These are not.

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