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Fantasy matchup

Mackenzie Dern vs Tatiana SuarezFantasy matchup — not a booked fight

Women's Strawweight champion · #2 at Women's Strawweight
Not a booked fightFANTASY MATCHUP — this fight is not booked. What our two blind models would say if it were.
Mackenzie Dern
UFC 12-5 · Pro 17-5
Women's Strawweight champion
VS
Tatiana Suarez
UFC 9-1 · Pro 13-1
#2 at Women's Strawweight

If they fought

A statistical read on a fight that does not exist — no market, no booking, nothing to grade it against.

Mackenzie Dern 36% Tatiana Suarez 64%

Run as an unbooked fight, the numbers favour Tatiana Suarez at 64% — a lean, not a conviction.

Our two reads agree, and closely. Both land on Tatiana Suarez — 64% on the first, 63% on the second, 1 point apart.

The same read puts the chance it goes the full distance at 65%.

KO/TKO
14%
Submission
20%
Decision
66%
These figures come from the same statistical reads we run on real cards, with the betting market removed — there is no market on a fight nobody has booked. Nothing here is timestamped against a result, nothing here is graded, and none of it counts towards our public record. It is a thought experiment with real numbers behind it.

Tale of the tape

Mackenzie Dern vs Tatiana Suarez — the facts, side by side. ▲ marks the reach edge.

UFC 12-5UFC recordUFC 9-1
17-5Pro record13-1
5' 4"Height5' 5"
63"Reach▲66"
OrthodoxStanceSouthpaw
33Age35
115 lbs.Weight115 lbs.
United StatesNationalityUnited States
Phoenix, Arizona, United StatesBorn inCovina, California, United States
Huntington Beach, California, United StatesFights out ofRancho Cucamonga, California, United States
RVCACampMillennia MMA
Vitals and record from public UFC statistics; nickname, nationality and camp from the public fighter register. Where a fighter was born and where they fight out of come from their Wikipedia entry; where we hold neither, the hometown shown is Sherdog’s. The UFC record is counted from the official results themselves.

Stat-by-stat

Mackenzie Dern (left) vs Tatiana Suarez (right) — career striking & grappling rates. The fighter ahead on each row is highlighted in their corner colour.

Strikes landed / min
3.38
vs
2.86
Striking accuracy
41%
vs
60%
Strikes absorbed / min
3.74
vs
1.63
Striking defence
52%
vs
44%
Takedowns / 15 min
1.07
vs
4.52
Takedown accuracy
21%
vs
45%
Takedown defence
40%
vs
57%
Sub attempts / 15 min
1
vs
0.7
Career averages from public UFC statistics. On “strikes absorbed / min”, fewer is better.

Fights that have happened between them

None.

Mackenzie Dern and Tatiana Suarez have never met in the UFC.

Every matchup on this page is a pairing that has never happened. That is how they are chosen: if these two had already met in the Octagon, there would be a real result to read instead, and this page would not exist.

The real fighters

Everything above is hypothetical. These are not.

Mackenzie Dern — record, tape and career → Tatiana Suarez — record, tape and career → This week's real card →
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