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Fantasy matchup

Justin Gaethje vs Arman TsarukyanFantasy matchup — not a booked fight

Lightweight champion · #2 at Lightweight
Not a booked fightFANTASY MATCHUP — this fight is not booked. What our two blind models would say if it were.
Justin Gaethje
UFC 11-5 · Pro 28-5
Lightweight champion
VS
Arman Tsarukyan
UFC 11-2 · Pro 24-3
#2 at Lightweight

If they fought

A statistical read on a fight that does not exist — no market, no booking, nothing to grade it against.

Justin Gaethje 31% Arman Tsarukyan 69%

Run as an unbooked fight, the numbers favour Arman Tsarukyan at 69% — a clear lean.

Our two reads agree, and closely. Both land on Arman Tsarukyan — 69% on the first, 69% on the second, the same number.

The same read puts the chance it goes the full distance at 47%.

KO/TKO
26%
Submission
8%
Decision
65%
These figures come from the same statistical reads we run on real cards, with the betting market removed — there is no market on a fight nobody has booked. Nothing here is timestamped against a result, nothing here is graded, and none of it counts towards our public record. It is a thought experiment with real numbers behind it.

Tale of the tape

Justin Gaethje vs Arman Tsarukyan — the facts, side by side. ▲ marks the reach edge.

UFC 11-5UFC recordUFC 11-2
28-5Pro record24-3
The HighlightNicknameAhalkalakets
5' 11"Height5' 7"
70"Reach▲72"
OrthodoxStanceOrthodox
37Age30
155 lbs.Weight155 lbs.
United StatesNationalityRussia
Safford, Arizona, United StatesBorn inAkhalkalaki, Georgia
Denver, Colorado, United StatesFights out ofYerevan, Armenia
Genesis Training CenterCampAmerican Top Team
Vitals and record from public UFC statistics; nickname, nationality and camp from the public fighter register. Where a fighter was born and where they fight out of come from their Wikipedia entry; where we hold neither, the hometown shown is Sherdog’s. The UFC record is counted from the official results themselves.

Stat-by-stat

Justin Gaethje (left) vs Arman Tsarukyan (right) — career striking & grappling rates. The fighter ahead on each row is highlighted in their corner colour.

Strikes landed / min
6.29
vs
3.78
Striking accuracy
57%
vs
49%
Strikes absorbed / min
6.83
vs
1.77
Striking defence
50%
vs
54%
Takedowns / 15 min
0.3
vs
3.25
Takedown accuracy
26%
vs
34%
Takedown defence
73%
vs
75%
Sub attempts / 15 min
0
vs
0.1
Career averages from public UFC statistics. On “strikes absorbed / min”, fewer is better.

Fights that have happened between them

None.

Justin Gaethje and Arman Tsarukyan have never met in the UFC.

Every matchup on this page is a pairing that has never happened. That is how they are chosen: if these two had already met in the Octagon, there would be a real result to read instead, and this page would not exist.

The real fighters

Everything above is hypothetical. These are not.

Justin Gaethje — record, tape and career → Arman Tsarukyan — record, tape and career → This week's real card →
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