Ilia Topuria vs Arman Tsarukyan — fantasy matchup

If they fought

A statistical read on a fight that does not exist — no market, no booking, nothing to grade it against.

Ilia Topuria 58% Arman Tsarukyan 42%

Run as an unbooked fight, the numbers favour Ilia Topuria at 58% — a lean, not a conviction.

Our two reads agree, and closely. Both land on Ilia Topuria — 58% on the first, 53% on the second, 5 points apart.

The same read puts the chance it goes the full distance at 50%.

Hypothetical run at Lightweight; Ilia Topuria fought mainly at Featherweight.

KO/TKO

34%

Submission

13%

Decision

53%

These figures come from the same statistical reads we run on real cards, with the betting market removed — there is no market on a fight nobody has booked. Nothing here is timestamped against a result, nothing here is graded, and none of it counts towards our public record. It is a thought experiment with real numbers behind it.

Tale of the tape

Ilia Topuria vs Arman Tsarukyan — the facts, side by side. ▲ marks the reach edge.

UFC 9-1	UFC record	UFC 11-2
17-1	Pro record	24-3
El Matador	Nickname	Ahalkalakets
5' 7"	Height	5' 7"
69"	Reach	▲72"
Orthodox	Stance	Orthodox
29	Age	30
155 lbs.	Weight	155 lbs.
Georgia	Nationality	Russia
Halle, Germany	Born in	Akhalkalaki, Georgia
Alicante, Spain	Fights out of	Yerevan, Armenia
Topuria Team	Camp	American Top Team

Vitals and record from public UFC statistics; nickname, nationality and camp from the public fighter register. Where a fighter was born and where they fight out of come from their Wikipedia entry; where we hold neither, the hometown shown is Sherdog’s. The UFC record is counted from the official results themselves.

Stat-by-stat

Ilia Topuria (left) vs Arman Tsarukyan (right) — career striking & grappling rates. The fighter ahead on each row is highlighted in their corner colour.

Strikes landed / min

4.82

3.78

Striking accuracy

50%

49%

Strikes absorbed / min

3.97

1.77

Striking defence

62%

54%

Takedowns / 15 min

1.73

3.25

Takedown accuracy

57%

34%

Takedown defence

95%

75%

Sub attempts / 15 min

0.9

0.1

Career averages from public UFC statistics. On “strikes absorbed / min”, fewer is better.

Fights that have happened between them

None.

Ilia Topuria and Arman Tsarukyan have never met in the UFC.

Every matchup on this page is a pairing that has never happened. That is how they are chosen: if these two had already met in the Octagon, there would be a real result to read instead, and this page would not exist.

The real fighters

Everything above is hypothetical. These are not.

Ilia Topuria — record, tape and career → Arman Tsarukyan — record, tape and career → This week's real card →

← All fantasy matchups

Ilia Topuria vs Arman TsarukyanFantasy matchup — not a booked fight

If they fought

Tale of the tape

Stat-by-stat

Fights that have happened between them

The real fighters