The full card, graded
The breakdown
Sterling is a former UFC bantamweight champion on his second run at 145 — 36 years old, still grappling-first, back after a 245-day layoff. Zalal has rebuilt his career with a 5-fight win streak and 50% of his wins by submission. Rare featherweight main event between two guys who'd rather wrestle than strike.
Two top-control wrestlers who both want top position — whoever lands the first takedown likely dictates 25 minutes. Sterling's chain-wrestling pedigree vs Zalal's momentum and 3-inch reach edge. Cardio over 5 rounds favours the younger man if Sterling can't find his rhythm early.
- Sterling 245-day layoff, first 5-rounder since losing the title
- Zalal riding a 5-fight streak at 29, peak of his career
- Both prefer grappling — expect scrambles, not a kickboxing match
- Sterling's 45% TD defence is a real vulnerability
- Zalal has never been KO'd in 11 pro fights
The breakdown
Dumont is on a 5-fight streak, all decisions, with zero finishes in her career — a pure points technician and the division's most avoided gatekeeper. Edwards has won 4 straight with the highest output in the matchup at 4.61 SLpM. Quick 63-day turnaround for Edwards.
Dumont wants a measured counter-striking battle; Edwards wants to drown her in volume. Edwards has a 3-inch reach edge and throws more, but Dumont's accuracy and fight IQ have beaten better strikers. Cardio and composure decide it.
- Dumont 100% decision rate — don't expect a finish
- Edwards on 63-day turnaround, shortest camp on the card
- Edwards throws 18% more strikes per minute
- Dumont's 5-fight streak is longest active run at 135
- 3-inch reach advantage for Edwards
The breakdown
Garcia is a grinder on a 2-fight streak with 76% takedown defence and 3.13 takedowns per 15 — he drowns people. Hernandez has been in the UFC since 2018 and found new life with four straight wins, half by KO. Classic grappler-vs-puncher at lightweight.
Hernandez needs space to land the right hand; Garcia wants him pinned against the fence. Reach goes to Hernandez by 2 inches but Garcia's TDD makes reactive takedowns tough. Whoever controls where the fight happens wins.
- Hernandez on a 4-fight win streak — best run of his UFC career
- Garcia's 76% TDD could neutralise Hernandez's sprawl game
- Hernandez has 50% KO rate; Garcia has never been finished in the UFC
- Both coming off 224-day layoffs
- Age edge — Garcia 31, Hernandez 33, both in prime
The breakdown
Grant is 40 years old, a volume kickboxer landing 5.14 per minute — oldest active bantamweight and still swinging. Luna Martinetti is making his UFC debut with no data in the system, stepping into a veteran's cage. Experience gap is absolute.
Debutant vs 15-fight UFC vet — Grant has seen every trick. Without tape on Luna Martinetti this is a leap of faith, but Grant's volume and chin have held up against live competition. Nerves and cage time usually tell.
- Grant 40 years old — clock ticking on his career
- Luna Martinetti UFC debut, no striking or grappling data available
- Grant coming off a loss, needs to stop the slide
- Grant's 5.14 SLpM is serious volume for the division
- Short-notice debutants are 1-in-3 in UFC history
The breakdown
Jackson is a 5'10 southpaw wrestler with a 75-inch reach at bantamweight — physical freak coming off his first loss in five. Barcelos is 38, on a 4-fight win streak, and lands 4.92 strikes per minute with 88% takedown defence. Veteran form meets athletic prime.
Jackson's length and takedowns vs Barcelos' high-output striking and near-impenetrable TDD. If Jackson can't get it down, he's in a kickboxing match against the more accurate striker. Reach advantage is massive — 8 inches.
- Barcelos' 88% TDD is elite — Jackson's top game gets tested
- Barcelos 38 years old, still improving on a 4-fight win streak
- Jackson coming off first loss since 2022
- Huge 8-inch reach gap in Jackson's favour
- Barcelos lands 66% more strikes per minute
The breakdown
Buchecha is a multi-time BJJ world champion making his second UFC appearance at 36 after losing his debut — a legend of grappling still figuring out MMA. Spann is a 6'5 inch light heavyweight with 9 UFC wins and submission-heavy finishes, dropping to heavyweight on short notice feel.
If this hits the ground Buchecha is arguably the best grappler in the building — but getting it there is the problem. Spann's reach and length make the entry brutal, and Buchecha's striking is untested at UFC level. Finish or get finished.
- Buchecha 0-1 in UFC — no striking resume to speak of
- Spann has 7 submission wins of his own — not a free grappling night
- 2-inch reach disadvantage for Buchecha against a 79" frame
- Spann 1-3 in last 4 — career at a crossroads
- Both over 34 — heavyweight cardio is the wildcard
The breakdown
Vieira is an ADCC champion and one of the most decorated grapplers in MMA, with 83% of his wins by submission — but dropped two of his last three. McConico is a 6'0" southpaw 1-2 in the UFC, all fights going to decision, with zero takedowns attempted.
Vieira will look for the takedown immediately — McConico has never initiated one. If Rodolfo gets top position this likely ends in a tap. McConico's only path is keeping it standing for 15 straight minutes against an elite chain-grappler.
- Vieira 83% submission rate — elite grappler
- McConico 0 takedown attempts in UFC career
- Vieira's cardio has historically faded in round 2-3
- McConico 4-inch reach advantage if kept standing
- Vieira coming off a loss — urgency fight
The breakdown
McVey is a 6'4" southpaw prospect 0-2 in the UFC, landing a division-high 5.87 strikes per minute but unable to convert. Dumas is 3-4 in UFC, a counter-striker with a 79-inch reach who's dropped two straight. Must-win fight for both.
Two long middleweights — McVey's volume vs Dumas' counters. McVey's output is high but accuracy and TDD are untested. Dumas has the length but hasn't pulled the trigger consistently. Whoever shows up mentally wins.
- Both fighters on losing streaks — desperation match
- McVey's 5.87 SLpM is elite volume if it translates
- Dumas has 2-inch reach edge on a taller southpaw
- McVey 0-2 — third strike likely means release
- Neither man has a UFC finish — expect a decision
The breakdown
Bueno Silva is a submission specialist with 4 of 5 wins by tap, but on a 4-fight skid after testing for banned substances. Montague is 1-0 in the UFC, a southpaw wrestler averaging 5 takedowns per 15 — but hasn't defended one yet.
Bueno Silva wants this on the mat but not on bottom — Montague will gladly put her there. If Mayra can flip guard into a triangle or armbar she wins; if Montague rides top for 15, she wins. Pure grappler-vs-grappler styles in reverse.
- Bueno Silva on a 4-fight losing streak — career crisis mode
- 80% of Bueno Silva's career wins are submissions
- Montague 0% TDD in her one UFC fight — small sample
- Montague's 5.0 TD average is elite if real
- Southpaw vs orthodox — Montague has the stance edge
The breakdown
Filho needs this on the floor; Rocha needs to keep it standing and use his absurd volume. Height is dead even but the stylistic clash is pure — grappler forward, striker circling. TDD will decide everything.
- Rocha's 83% TDD is elite in a small UFC sample
- Filho 100% submission finish rate when he wins
- Rocha at 25, Filho at 32 — youth edge
- Rocha lands 3.5x more strikes per minute
- Both coming off 196-day layoffs — fresh
The breakdown
Griffin is 40, a power puncher 8-10 in the UFC with a 287-day layoff and two straight losses — veteran at the edge of his run. Valenzuela is a UFC debutant with no data in the system. Gatekeeper test for the newcomer.
Griffin has fought everyone and carries one-shot power; Valenzuela's tape is a blank page. Age and layoff favour the debutant's timing, but cage experience is Griffin's entire edge. If it's a brawl, Griffin has the better chin on paper.
- Griffin 287-day layoff, longest on the card
- Valenzuela UFC debut, zero data available
- Griffin 5-inch reach advantage
- Griffin 2-fight losing streak — roster spot in question
- Age gap of 8 years favours Valenzuela
The breakdown
Alencar is 5'1" with 100% UFC takedown defence and a 2-fight win streak — small frame, sticky grappling. Polastri is a power striker landing a card-high 6.49 strikes per minute with 50% KO rate. Wrestler vs striker, textbook matchup.
Polastri wants to keep this upright and swing; Alencar wants her on the mat. Alencar's 100% TDD suggests Polastri won't wrestle back. Reach is 6 inches to Polastri — the entry is where this is won or lost.
- Polastri's 6.49 SLpM is highest on the entire card
- Alencar 100% TDD in UFC — perfect sample so far
- 6-inch reach gap favouring Polastri
- Polastri 50% KO rate — one shot ends it
- Alencar 2.77 TD average vs a 67% TDD striker