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Events · UFC Fight Night: Basharat vs Vazquez
7 Feb 2026

UFC Fight Night: Basharat vs Vazquez

UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira — the promotion’s own billing for this card

Las Vegas, Nevada, USA · 13 fights
HeadlinerMario Bautista vs Vinicius Oliveira— this card is exported under the name of Javid Basharat vs Gianni Vazquez, a prelims bout. Card order and the main-event badge below follow the promotion’s own card, not that name.
FightIQ 10-3on this card · 76.92% · 13 fights graded
Every pick on this card is one honest, calibrated confidence rating — the % is the signal. Graded against the official UFC result. See the full record →

The full card, graded

MAIN CARD
★ Main Event · Bantamweight Bout POTN -179 / +144
Mario Bautista
VS
Vinicius Oliveira
46%54%
TOSS-UPWe predict Vinicius Oliveira — 54% confidentLOSS (Mario Bautista · SUB) The receipt
Vinicius Oliveira at +144. Model 53.8% vs market 39.0% (+14.8pp).
The breakdownBautista is the experienced technician at 10-3, switch-stance specialist with a 90% decision rate across 13 UFC fights. The model sees the market u…

Bautista is the experienced technician at 10-3, switch-stance specialist with a 90% decision rate across 13 UFC fights. The model sees the market undervaluing the unbeaten prospect significantly.

What decides it
  • Bautista 90% decision rate — elite at controlling pace
  • Both switch-stance fighters — tactical chess match likely
Written by the FightIQ desk for this card. Editorial, not model output.
Flyweight Bout +275 / -357
Amir Albazi
VS
Kyoji Horiguchi
32%68%
MEDWe predict Kyoji Horiguchi — 68% confidentWIN The receipt
Kyoji Horiguchi model 67.8% — market tighter at 74.6%.
The breakdownAlbazi was 5-1 with 4 consecutive wins before his last loss and has been inactive for 462 days. The layoff is a significant concern against Horiguc…

Albazi was 5-1 with 4 consecutive wins before his last loss and has been inactive for 462 days. The layoff is a significant concern against Horiguchi's sharp recent form.

What decides it
  • Albazi 462-day layoff — ring rust a major factor
  • Horiguchi 75% decision rate — point-fighting specialist
  • Both orthodox stance, similar height at 5'4"-5'5"
  • Horiguchi's reach disadvantage (63" vs 68") offset by speed
Written by the FightIQ desk for this card. Editorial, not model output.
Heavyweight Bout -156 / +125
Jailton Almeida
VS
Rizvan Kuniev
62%38%
MEDWe predict Jailton Almeida — 62% confidentLOSS (Rizvan Kuniev · DEC) The receipt
Jailton Almeida at -156. Model 62.5% vs market 57.8% (+4.7pp).
The breakdown
What decides it
  • Kuniev 0-1 in UFC — massive experience gap
  • Almeida's 37.5% finish rate — can end fights early
  • HW power means anything can happen despite skill gap
Written by the FightIQ desk for this card. Editorial, not model output.
Middleweight Bout FOTN -417 / +300
Michal Oleksiejczuk
VS
Marc-Andre Barriault
78%22%
HIGHWe predict Michal Oleksiejczuk — 78% confidentWIN The receipt
Michal Oleksiejczuk at -417. Model 78.2% barely clears market 76.3%.
The breakdownOleksiejczuk is a finishing machine — 88.9% KO rate with 8 of 9 wins by knockout. On a 2-fight win streak from a southpaw stance. Barriault is 6-9…

Oleksiejczuk is a finishing machine — 88.9% KO rate with 8 of 9 wins by knockout. On a 2-fight win streak from a southpaw stance. Barriault is 6-9 and on a losing skid (LLLWL form).

What decides it
  • Oleksiejczuk 88.9% KO rate — pure finisher
  • Barriault 6-9 record, on LLLWL form
  • Oleksiejczuk southpaw stance creates angles
  • Model 78.5% with HIGH confidence
  • KO/TKO 56.1% most likely method — expect violence
Written by the FightIQ desk for this card. Editorial, not model output.
Bantamweight Bout +225 / -286
Jean Matsumoto
VS
Farid Basharat
33%67%
MEDWe predict Farid Basharat — 67% confidentWIN The receipt
Farid Basharat model 66.9% — market tighter at 70.7%.
The breakdownMatsumoto is 3-1 with a recent bounce-back win. The model favours Basharat at 67% as the more polished technical fighter.

Matsumoto is 3-1 with a recent bounce-back win. The model favours Basharat at 67% as the more polished technical fighter.

What decides it
  • Basharat 5-0, all by decision — elite point-fighting
  • Matsumoto 3-1 but 100% decision rate too
  • Basharat's reach advantage (71" vs 68")
  • Both orthodox — could be a technical chess match
  • Model 67% Basharat with MED confidence
Written by the FightIQ desk for this card. Editorial, not model output.
Light Heavyweight Bout -189 / +150
Dustin Jacoby
VS
Julius Walker
44%56%
LOWWe predict Julius Walker — 56% confidentLOSS (Dustin Jacoby · KO) The receipt
Julius Walker at +150. Model 56.5% vs market 38.0% (+18.5pp).
The breakdown
What decides it
  • Jacoby 66.7% KO rate — dangerous power
  • Walker's youth (26) and size advantage (6'4", 78" reach)
  • Jacoby 252-day layoff could affect timing
  • LHW power means either man can end it
Written by the FightIQ desk for this card. Editorial, not model output.
PRELIMS
Welterweight Bout +450 / -625
Alex Morono
VS
Daniil Donchenko
17%83%
LOCKWe predict Daniil Donchenko — 83% confidentWIN The receipt
Daniil Donchenko at -625. Model 82.8% barely clears market 82.6%.
The breakdownMorono is the veteran at 13-9 but on a brutal 3-fight losing streak (LWLLL form).

Morono is the veteran at 13-9 but on a brutal 3-fight losing streak (LWLLL form).

What decides it
  • Donchenko 100% KO rate in UFC debut
  • Morono on 3-fight losing streak, declining at 35
  • LOCK confidence at 82.5% — model's strongest pick
  • Donchenko 11 years younger (24 vs 35)
  • KO/TKO 48.6% most likely method
Written by the FightIQ desk for this card. Editorial, not model output.
Welterweight Bout -278 / +220
Nikolay Veretennikov
VS
Niko Price
58%42%
LOWWe predict Nikolay Veretennikov — 58% confidentWIN The receipt
Nikolay Veretennikov model 58.0% — market tighter at 70.2%.
The breakdownPrice is the veteran at 8-9 with a 50% KO rate but also on a 2-fight skid.

Price is the veteran at 8-9 with a 50% KO rate but also on a 2-fight skid.

What decides it
  • Price veteran experience with 50% KO rate
  • Market -278 vs model 58.8% — Price undervalued
  • Both on losing streaks — classic gatekeeper fight
  • Price's 76" reach gives him range advantage
Written by the FightIQ desk for this card. Editorial, not model output.
Women's Strawweight Bout +128 / -159
Bruna Brasil
VS
Ketlen Souza
46%54%
TOSS-UPWe predict Ketlen Souza — 54% confidentWIN The receipt
Ketlen Souza model 54.1% — market tighter at 58.3%.
The breakdownBrasil is 3-3 with a recent win (WLWLW form) and 100% decision rate. Souza is 2-3 on a 2-fight losing streak but the model slightly favours her at…

Brasil is 3-3 with a recent win (WLWLW form) and 100% decision rate. Souza is 2-3 on a 2-fight losing streak but the model slightly favours her at 53.5%. Both have 0% finish rate — this is going the distance.

What decides it
  • Souza slight model favourite at 53.5%
  • Both 100% decision rate — guaranteed to go distance
  • Souza on 2-fight losing streak despite model favour
  • Decision 69% — highest decision probability on the card
Written by the FightIQ desk for this card. Editorial, not model output.
Bantamweight Bout -714 / +510
Javid Basharat
VS
Gianni Vazquez
68%32%
MEDWe predict Javid Basharat — 68% confidentWIN The receipt
Javid Basharat model 67.6% — market tighter at 84.3%.
The breakdown
What decides it
  • Basharat on 2-fight losing streak with long layoff
  • Vazquez UFC debut — unknown quantity
  • Market line (-714) wildly overprices Basharat
  • Model 68% vs market 84.3% — Vazquez undervalued
  • Basharat's 100% decision rate means this goes long
Written by the FightIQ desk for this card. Editorial, not model output.
Catch Weight Bout -357 / +275
Wang Cong
VS
Eduarda Moura
62%38%
MEDWe predict Wang Cong — 62% confidentWIN The receipt
Wang Cong model 62.3% — market tighter at 74.6%.
The breakdownIdentical 3-1 records and similar profiles — both on 2-fight win streaks with 33.3% finish rates.

Identical 3-1 records and similar profiles — both on 2-fight win streaks with 33.3% finish rates.

What decides it
  • Wang Cong southpaw stance creates awkward angles
  • Identical records (3-1) and win streaks
  • Market line -357 much wider than model's 61.5%
  • Decision 63.5% heavily favoured — low finish expectation
Written by the FightIQ desk for this card. Editorial, not model output.
Bantamweight Bout POTN -133 / +110
Muin Gafurov
VS
JWJakub Wiklacz
49%51%
TOSS-UPWe predict Jakub Wiklacz — 51% confidentWIN The receipt
Jakub Wiklacz at +110. Model 50.8% vs market 45.5% (+5.3pp).
The breakdownGafurov is 2-2 with a 2-fight win streak and 100% decision rate.

Gafurov is 2-2 with a 2-fight win streak and 100% decision rate.

What decides it
  • Gafurov 385-day layoff — serious ring rust concern
  • Wiklacz 3" reach advantage (72" vs 68")
  • True toss-up at 51.1% — model splits hairs
  • Both 100% decision rate — expect a chess match
Written by the FightIQ desk for this card. Editorial, not model output.
Women's Bantamweight Bout -136 / +136
KSKlaudia Sygula
VS
Priscila Cachoeira
71%29%
HIGHWe predict Klaudia Sygula — 71% confidentWIN The receipt
Klaudia Sygula at —. Model 70.6% vs market 57.7% (+12.9pp).
The breakdownSygula is 1-1 with a recent win and strong 71.1% model probability despite being only a slight -136 favourite. Cachoeira is 5-7 with an 80% KO rate…

Sygula is 1-1 with a recent win and strong 71.1% model probability despite being only a slight -136 favourite. Cachoeira is 5-7 with an 80% KO rate but on a losing skid (WLLWL form).

What decides it
  • Sygula model 71.1% vs market 57.7% — huge edge
  • Cachoeira 80% KO rate but 5-7 overall
  • HIGH confidence — model's second strongest conviction
  • Cachoeira's declining form (WLLWL)
  • Sygula's 231-day layoff is the only concern
Written by the FightIQ desk for this card. Editorial, not model output.
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