What we published before the card, next to what happened in the cage.
Alatengheili’s first UFC fight in 17 months. A fighter coming back after 1 to 2 years away, against an opponent active within the year, wins 41% of the time (375 of 924 fights).
Counted from every UFC fight on record before this bout. These are history, not our model’s read.
Every round the fight went, shaded by where the significant strikes actually landed — and the takedowns, control time and knockdowns beside them.
3 rounds of tape
Significant strikes, takedowns, control time, knockdowns and submission attempts exactly as UFCStats recorded them for this bout, round by round. Zone percentages are that round’s landed head, body and leg counts over their own total — raw arithmetic, nothing modelled or smoothed. A round in which a fighter landed nothing shades empty and reads zero; it is never filled in from the round before.
The judges’ totals, the media’s cards beside them, and how these judges usually score.
Decision - Split
| Judge | Total |
|---|---|
| Mike Bell1.9 avg spread · 37% wide | 29–28 |
| Chris Lee2.0 avg spread · 44% wide | 28–29 |
| Sal D'amato2.1 avg spread · 46% wide | 29–28 |
There is no per-round card for this bout in our decisions source, so the judges’ totals are all we can show. This one is inside the window our source covers — it is a gap in the record, not a scrape we are waiting on, and nothing here is estimated to fill it.
Official cards come from the UFCStats fight record and MMA Decisions. Media cards and the fan vote are MMA Decisions’ own collection and are not official. Judge tendency figures are that judge’s whole recorded history, not this bout — they are context for how a card was scored, never a claim that it was scored wrongly.
Career UFC takedown rates. Red corner left, blue corner right.
Alatengheili
John Castaneda
Career UFC takedown rates exactly as UFCStats publishes them: takedowns landed per 15 minutes, completion rate, submission attempts per 15 minutes, and the share of takedowns tried on them that they stuffed. Attempts per 15 is the one derived figure — landed ÷ completion rate — and it is omitted wherever either input is missing. UFCStats writes 0% where no attempt was recorded at all, so a percentage of exactly zero reads “n/a” here rather than as a measured rate. “Field” is the average fighter in that weight class, or across every division where a class is too small to average. Rate bars run to the population’s 95th percentile (5.50 takedowns / 15m); a fighter above it pins the bar. Percentages are drawn on their own axis.
What the market did on the way to the cage — the price, not our model. The gold marker is where our pick was frozen.
From the open the market drifted toward our pick: John Castaneda's implied chance moved up from 72% to 76% (+3.0pp).
This series stops at Sep 26 21:21Z — the last capture we hold from before the bout that ran ahead of this one on the card had finished — so it is provably from before this fight started. Our capture window is card-level and kept running through the fight, so what follows it in the raw file is the market collapsing live and then paying out at 1.00 / 0.00. That is a settlement, not price history: it is not drawn, and it is not counted in the figures below.
Our published call had John Castaneda at 76.0%. At the last price we captured before the fight, the de-vigged market had the same fighter at 75.5% — our number sat 0.5pp above the market’s. Two numbers, side by side. How our calls have actually done is the public record, not one bout.
| Series | Open | Low | High | Last pre-fight | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alatengheili — sportsbook consensus | 29.2% | 23.9% | 29.4% | 24.6% | −4.7pp |
| John Castaneda — sportsbook consensus | 70.8% | 70.6% | 76.1% | 75.4% | +4.7pp |
| Alatengheili — Polymarket | 27.5% | 22.5% | 29.0% | 24.5% | −3.0pp |
| John Castaneda — Polymarket | 72.5% | 71.0% | 77.5% | 75.5% | +3.0pp |