Round 1
17 of 44
Sig.
strikes
strikes
16 of 50
0 of 0
Take-
downs
downs
0 of 0
0:00
Control
0:00
0
Knock-
downs
downs
0
Distance 17Clinch 0Ground 0
Where it
happened
happened
Distance 16Clinch 0Ground 0
VSSettled
The story going in
- Comes in on a 3-fight win streak.
- Has finished 7 of 10 UFC wins.
22-10-1
Record
10-0
38
Age
−8 yr30
+1″6' 3"
Height
6' 2"
+3″76″
Reach
73″
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Factory X
Gym
GOR MMA
Fort Morgan, Colorado, United Statesborn in
From
Moscowhometown, per Sherdog
Vitals, record, nickname and camp come from the public UFC fighter register and are current, not a snapshot of fight night. UFC bouts, finish rate and every storyline line are counted off the official UFC fight record. A tick marks the side holding the raw edge in that row — longer reach, taller, younger, more bouts, a higher finish rate. It is a fact about the tape, not a prediction, and rows with no clean comparison (record, stance, gym, hometown) carry no tick at all. Any row we cannot fill on both sides is left out rather than half-drawn. Where a fighter was born and where they fight out of come from their Wikipedia entry; where we hold neither, the hometown shown is Sherdog’s. Streaks, bout counts and finish rates are as they stood going into this fight — this bout and everything after it is excluded from the count.
The call vs the fight
What we published before the card, next to what happened in the cage.
Our call
Dustin Jacoby
57.7% confidentLOW
The fight
Muhammad Said
LOSS✓
Graded against the official UFC result, from
the same record every other page on this site is graded from. The tick beside the verdict
is the method call — a correct winner with a wrong method is a partial hit and reads
as one. See the full public record →
Round by round
Every round the fight went, shaded by where the significant strikes actually landed — and the takedowns, control time and knockdowns beside them.
UFCStats · per round
2 rounds of tape
Round 2⚡ 2 KD SaidovEnded 4:49
17 of 49
Sig.
strikes
strikes
44 of 83
0 of 0
Take-
downs
downs
0 of 0
0:00
Control
0:02
0
Knock-
downs
downs
2
Distance 17Clinch 0Ground 0
Where it
happened
happened
Distance 36Clinch 4Ground 4
Significant strikes, takedowns, control time, knockdowns and submission attempts exactly as UFCStats recorded them for this bout, round by round. Zone percentages are that round’s landed head, body and leg counts over their own total — raw arithmetic, nothing modelled or smoothed. A round in which a fighter landed nothing shades empty and reads zero; it is never filled in from the round before.
How it ended
This bout never reached the judges. Here is the finish, as the official record has it.
Won inside the distance
Muhammad Said
Round
2
Clock
4:49
Method
KO/TKO
This bout did not reach the judges, so there are no official cards for it. The round-by-round tape above is the whole record of what happened. Referee: Jim Perdios.
Takedowns
Takedowns
Dustin Jacoby
The level change — how often it lands, how often it is stopped. Career UFC rates, straight off the tape.
FightIQ read
Rarely shoots
0.30 takedowns landed per 15 minutes — −2.02 on the field average.
Career ratesvs field average
TAKEDOWNS4
0.30 / 15m−2.02 vs field
ATTEMPTS9
1.20 / 15m−4.30 vs field
ACCURACY21
25%−19pp vs field
SUB ATT
0.00 / 15m−1.60 vs field
TD DEFENCE52
62%−1pp vs field
Rate bars run to the population’s 95th percentile (6.25 takedowns / 15m); a fighter above it pins the bar. Percentages are drawn on their own axis.
Career UFC takedown rates exactly as UFCStats publishes them: takedowns landed per 15 minutes, completion rate, submission attempts per 15 minutes, and the share of takedowns tried on them that they stuffed. Attempts per 15 is the one derived figure — landed ÷ completion rate — and it is omitted wherever either input is missing. UFCStats writes 0% where no attempt was recorded at all, so a percentage of exactly zero reads “n/a” here rather than as a measured rate. “Field” is the average fighter in that weight class, or across every division where a class is too small to average.
Ranked in Light Heavyweight
The market story
Where the price started and where it finished — the sportsbook consensus, with the vig removed. We captured no price series for this bout, so there is no chart to draw.
Dustin Jacobyclose only
no opening line on recordclose 62.5%
Muhammad Saidovclose only
no opening line on recordclose 37.5%
0%50%100%
OpenClosing consensus (BFO, vig removed)
We hold the closing consensus for this bout but no opening line, so the strip marks the close alone: Dustin Jacoby 62.5%, Muhammad Saidov 37.5%, vig removed.
Our published call had Dustin Jacoby at 57.7%. At the closing consensus, the de-vigged market had the same fighter at 62.5% — our number sat 4.8pp below the market’s. Two numbers, side by side. How our calls have actually done is the public record, not one bout.
Show the numbers
| Corner | Open (US) | Close (US) | Open % | Close % | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dustin Jacoby | -220 | -190 | — | 62.5% | — |
| Muhammad Saidov | — | 154 | — | 37.5% | — |
Opening and closing moneylines from BestFightOdds (data/refs/bfo_fighter_moneylines.csv), one row per fighter per bout, de-vigged pairwise so the two corners sum to 100% · scraped 2026-09-06 · BestFightOdds has no fighter page scraped for Muhammad Said, so that corner’s CLOSE is read from the opponent’s row, which names it explicitly. No opening line exists for that corner and none is shown.. No price series was captured for this bout, so no line is drawn between the two points.