Round 11 sub attempt
13 of 21
Sig.
strikes
strikes
8 of 11
0 of 0
Take-
downs
downs
0 of 2
2:37
Control
0:50
0
Knock-
downs
downs
0
1
Sub
attempts
attempts
0
Distance 4Clinch 5Ground 4
Where it
happened
happened
Distance 4Clinch 4Ground 0
Red corner
GrantDawson“KGD”American Top Team · Born in Cambria, Wisconsin, United States · Fights out of Coconut Creek, Florida, United States
VSSettled
Blue corner
MateuszRebeckiAmerican Top Team · Born in Gryfice, Poland · Fights out of Szczecin, Poland
The story going in
- Has finished 6 of 11 UFC wins.
- Has dropped 2 straight in the UFC.
- 14 UFC bouts deep — 7 more than Rebecki.
- Has finished 2 of 4 UFC wins.
24-3-1
Record
21-5
−1 yr32
Age
33
+3″5' 10"
Height
5' 7"
+6″72″
Reach
66″
Switch
Stance
Southpaw
+714
UFC bouts
7
+5%6/1155% of wins
Finishes
2/450% of wins
American Top Team
Gym
American Top Team
Cambria, Wisconsin, United States
Born in
Gryfice, Poland
Coconut Creek, Florida, United States
Fights out of
Szczecin, Poland
Vitals, record, nickname and camp come from the public UFC fighter register and are current, not a snapshot of fight night. UFC bouts, finish rate and every storyline line are counted off the official UFC fight record. A tick marks the side holding the raw edge in that row — longer reach, taller, younger, more bouts, a higher finish rate. It is a fact about the tape, not a prediction, and rows with no clean comparison (record, stance, gym, hometown) carry no tick at all. Any row we cannot fill on both sides is left out rather than half-drawn. Where a fighter was born and where they fight out of come from their Wikipedia entry; where we hold neither, the hometown shown is Sherdog’s. Streaks, bout counts and finish rates are as they stood going into this fight — this bout and everything after it is excluded from the count.
The call vs the fight
What we published before the card, next to what happened in the cage.
Our call
Grant Dawson
74.3% confidentHIGH
The fight
Grant Dawson
WIN✗
Graded against the official UFC result, from
the same record every other page on this site is graded from. The tick beside the verdict
is the method call — a correct winner with a wrong method is a partial hit and reads
as one. See the full public record →
Round by round
Every round the fight went, shaded by where the significant strikes actually landed — and the takedowns, control time and knockdowns beside them.
UFCStats · per round
3 rounds of tape
Round 2⚡ 1 KD Rebecki
20 of 69
Sig.
strikes
strikes
24 of 51
0 of 2
Take-
downs
downs
1 of 3
0:14
Control
1:29
0
Knock-
downs
downs
1
0
Sub
attempts
attempts
0
Distance 19Clinch 1Ground 0
Where it
happened
happened
Distance 22Clinch 0Ground 2
Round 33 sub attemptsEnded 4:42
2 of 4
Sig.
strikes
strikes
1 of 2
1 of 1
Take-
downs
downs
0 of 0
4:17
Control
0:03
0
Knock-
downs
downs
0
3
Sub
attempts
attempts
0
Distance 1Clinch 0Ground 1
Where it
happened
happened
Distance 1Clinch 0Ground 0
Significant strikes, takedowns, control time, knockdowns and submission attempts exactly as UFCStats recorded them for this bout, round by round. Zone percentages are that round’s landed head, body and leg counts over their own total — raw arithmetic, nothing modelled or smoothed. A round in which a fighter landed nothing shades empty and reads zero; it is never filled in from the round before.
How it ended
This bout never reached the judges. Here is the finish, as the official record has it.
Won inside the distance
Grant Dawson
Round
3
Clock
4:42
Method
SUB
This bout did not reach the judges, so there are no official cards for it. The round-by-round tape above is the whole record of what happened. Referee: Mike Beltran.
Takedowns
Takedowns
The level change — head to head
Career UFC takedown rates. Red corner left, blue corner right.
Grant Dawson
3.58 / 15m
TAKEDOWNS
3.05 / 15m
9.18 / 15m
ATTEMPTS
6.10 / 15m
39%
ACCURACY
50%
1.40 / 15m
SUB ATT
0.40 / 15m
66%
TD DEFENCE
53%
Mateusz Rebecki
Career UFC takedown rates exactly as UFCStats publishes them: takedowns landed per 15 minutes, completion rate, submission attempts per 15 minutes, and the share of takedowns tried on them that they stuffed. Attempts per 15 is the one derived figure — landed ÷ completion rate — and it is omitted wherever either input is missing. UFCStats writes 0% where no attempt was recorded at all, so a percentage of exactly zero reads “n/a” here rather than as a measured rate. “Field” is the average fighter in that weight class, or across every division where a class is too small to average. Rate bars run to the population’s 95th percentile (5.19 takedowns / 15m); a fighter above it pins the bar. Percentages are drawn on their own axis.
Ranked in Lightweight
The market story
What the market did on the way to the cage — the price, not our model. The gold marker is where our pick was published.
Grant DawsonMateusz RebeckiPolymarketSportsbook consensus (vig removed)
From the open the market drifted toward our pick: Grant Dawson's implied chance moved up from 58% to 66% (+8.5pp). Our pick was published before this window opened — so the gold marker sits at the first snapshot we hold, not at a price we were reacting to.
Our published call had Grant Dawson at 74.3%. At the last price we captured before the fight, the de-vigged market had the same fighter at 66.5% — our number sat 7.8pp above the market’s. Two numbers, side by side. How our calls have actually done is the public record, not one bout.
Show the numbers
| Series | Open | Low | High | Last capture | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grant Dawson — sportsbook consensus | 56.6% | 54.9% | 91.4% | 91.4% | +34.8pp |
| Mateusz Rebecki — sportsbook consensus | 43.4% | 8.6% | 45.1% | 8.6% | −34.8pp |
| Grant Dawson — Polymarket | 58.0% | 54.5% | 66.5% | 66.5% | +8.5pp |
| Mateusz Rebecki — Polymarket | 42.0% | 33.5% | 45.5% | 33.5% | −8.5pp |
Price history from Polymarket (moneyline, both corners) and BestFightOdds (sportsbook consensus, vig removed). 1,588 snapshots on file · window May 02 18:46–May 09 23:57Z · last capture May 09, 23:57Z · hourly-downsampled for the chart · read at build time from the price archive, not a live feed.